The Barton Plan

Niederwald, TX 78640

$250,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,008/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-505/mo
• Annual: $-6,062/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $84,728

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.