443 Pond View Dr

Perry, MI 48857

$82,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,501/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $613/mo
• Annual: $7,359/yr
• Cap rate: 15.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.70%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $23,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#142 in MI, #3,653 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Morrice Area Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #323 of 540 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 2.2% in Perry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.