8427 Saddle Rd

Kelseyville, CA 95451

$199,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,546/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$286
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-108/mo
• Annual: $-1,290/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,059 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riviera Elementary (223 students, 60% FRL); Mountain Vista Middle (375 students, 76% FRL); Kelseyville High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #811 of 1,170 statewide, top 70%, 540 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $151k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in Kelseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.