31108 3rd Ave #114

Black Diamond, WA 98010

$155,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Pending · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $1,186/mo
• Annual: $14,231/yr
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.63%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 1.90%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#87 in WA, #1,663 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Enumclaw School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #46 of 291 in WA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Black Diamond Elementary (397 students, 25% FRL); Enumclaw Sr High School (1,339 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.2% in Black Diamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.