8646 Giovanni Ave

Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$328,722D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,724
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-286/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $92,042

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $329k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-286/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $266k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,658/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.