39-41 N Railroad Ave

Pedricktown, NJ 08067

$250,000C-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,576 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-290/mo
• Annual: $-3,483/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (23.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#444 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Oldmans Township School District (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #230 of 612 in NJ (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oldmans Township School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #471 of 1,303 statewide, top 39%, 282 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Oldmans Township School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $250k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.