5254 Dragonfly Dr

Wildwood, FL 34785

$199,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,688 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$345
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-261/mo
• Annual: $-3,132/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (23.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.