15 Chestnut Ridge Cir

Cherryville, PA 18058

$72,000A

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $966/mo
• Annual: $11,598/yr
• Cap rate: 22.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.53%
• DSCR: 3.56
• 1% rule: 2.60%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,483 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Palmerton Area SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #234 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.