2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,308 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Active
· 84 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,341/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$458
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$492
Net cashflow
$-51/mo
Annual
$-608/yr
Cap rate
6.07%
Cash-on-cash
-0.79%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$76,995
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-608/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (2.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (14.9% below list).
It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $234k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,341/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EVXNFG6070H527
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29