168 Orange Ave

Suffern, NY 10901

$650,000D+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1857 · MultiFamily · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,363
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,223
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,043/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 1×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-85/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $620k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $582k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $582k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#546 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Suffern Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #242 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1857 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $302k; list at $650k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Suffern — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,825/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($108k/yr) (locally 828% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1857 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?