2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
896 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,237/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$344
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$260
Net cashflow
$-48/mo
Annual
$-580/yr
Cap rate
5.85%
Cash-on-cash
-1.59%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-580/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (6.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (4.9% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Sky Harbour El (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 475 students, 91% FRL); Sharon Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 677 students, 92% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EWT3Z04DE7DZZF
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29