1286 Harbor Ct

Independence, KY 41051

$294,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,108 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,067/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $82,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (24.3% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $223k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#130 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beechgrove Elementary School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #197 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 660 students, 61% FRL); Turkey Foot Middle School (math 38% / reading 51%, grade D, #36 of 217 statewide, top 18%, 1,029 students, 47% FRL); Simon Kenton High School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 1,859 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.