Plan 1637 Plan

North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$255,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,559
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,145/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $83,243

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (3.1% below list).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 963 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 143d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,480/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.