2 bd · 3.5 ba ·
2,119 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,487/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$922
Tax + insurance
−$290
HOA
−$300
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$522
Net cashflow
$452/mo
Annual
$5,424/yr
Cap rate
9.38%
Cash-on-cash
11.01%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$49,252
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $176k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $171k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#253 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $70k; list at $176k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.0% in Brooklyn Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EXKYZWA4B2XK3P
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29