1163 Linden Ave

Arbutus, MD 21227

$269,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1958 · Townhouse · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-378/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-378/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#70 in MD, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Relay Elementary (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #400 of 860 statewide, top 47%, 609 students, 57% FRL); Arbutus Middle (math 11% / reading 40%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 970 students, 56% FRL); Lansdowne High (math 3% / reading 25%, grade F, #190 of 222 statewide, top 86%, 1,410 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 39% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Arbutus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.