621 Washington St

Natchez, MS 39120

$427,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,812 sqft · Built 1834 · SingleFamily · Active · 588 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,244
• Tax + insurance: −$588
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-808/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $119,812

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $428k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-808/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $416k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 588 days — a 12% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Susie B West Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #296 of 375 statewide, top 82%, 369 students, 100% FRL); Morgantown Middle (math 7% / reading 12%); Natchez High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #183 of 197 statewide, top 93%, 665 students, 100% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1834 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 588 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1834 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.