1315 Johnson Ave Ave

Larned, KS 67550

$65,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · Built 1918 · SingleFamily · Active · 324 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $320/mo
• Annual: $3,835/yr
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.07%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#120 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ft Larned (town): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #49 of 169 in KS (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP.
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.