5255 Wilderness Rd

Dublin, VA 24084

$189,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,449 sqft · Built 1820 · SingleFamily · Active · 407 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $118/mo
• Annual: $1,419/yr
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.7% below list).
• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#251 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.