6226 S Joshua Ln

Atlantis, FL 33462

$23,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,360/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax + insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$1,347
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $359/mo
• Annual: $4,303/yr
• Cap rate: 25.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.82%
• DSCR: 3.97
• 1% rule: 10.26%
• Cash to close: $6,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $23k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#390 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Starlight Cove Elementary School (math 40% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 737 students, 77% FRL); Tradewinds Middle School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #468 of 571 statewide, top 82%, 912 students, 74% FRL); Santaluces Community High (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 2,675 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 57% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (47%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.