1 bd · 1.5 ba ·
762 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Manufactured
· Active
· 13 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,636/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$383
Tax + insurance
−$122
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$344
Net cashflow
$788/mo
Annual
$9,457/yr
Cap rate
19.25%
Cash-on-cash
46.27%
DSCR
3.06
1% rule
2.24%
Cash to close
$20,440
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Eagle Ridge Elementary School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #592 of 1,109 statewide, top 54%, 374 students, 61% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($140k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F0BCDYBB8S82KP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29