3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,394 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 195 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,547/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$498
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$325
Net cashflow
$-62/mo
Annual
$-742/yr
Cap rate
5.80%
Cash-on-cash
-1.77%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-742/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (7.3% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $363 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-673 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Harlandale ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #748 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Columbia Heights El (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,833 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 320 students, 92% FRL); A Leal Jr Middle (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 629 students, 90% FRL); Harlandale H S (math 17% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 1,664 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 66% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F0QBRG5RVA1F6X
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29