33 Park Pl

Lovettsville, VA 20180

$369,900C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,220 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $94/mo
• Annual: $1,132/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $103,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in VA, #3,260 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $221k; list at $370k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.9% in Lovettsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.