47802 Xylophone Rd

Vineland, MN 56450

$225,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 244 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-107/mo
• Annual: $-1,290/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#693 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Onamia Public School District (rural): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #289 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Mille Lacs County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mille Lacs County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $225k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.3% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?