1328 Patterson Ave

Erie, PA 16508

$175,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · Built 1926 · MultiFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,033/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $319/mo
• Annual: $3,826/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $159/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $175k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.