3408 20th St

San Bernardino, CA 92346

$194,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-247/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $54,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-247/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#661 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, cost of living F.
• San Bernardino City Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #959 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oehl Elementary (479 students, 87% FRL); Serrano Middle (683 students, 90% FRL); San Gorgonio High (1,542 students, 88% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $194k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in San Bernardino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?