3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,942 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,789/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$330
Tax + insurance
−$154
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$376
Net cashflow
$930/mo
Annual
$11,155/yr
Cap rate
25.06%
Cash-on-cash
67.01%
DSCR
3.98
1% rule
2.84%
Cash to close
$17,640
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $63k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($436 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $63k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F21CSAFFTPRG8V
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29