4210 Ironwood Cir Unit 308J

Bradenton, FL 34209

$115,500D+

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$606
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$646
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $310/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $32,340

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $116k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($310/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $799 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H. S. Moody Elementary School (math 39% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 606 students, 73% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 510 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $116k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?