411 Wells Rd

Oakland, OR 97462

$270,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 759 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-537/mo
• Annual: $-6,444/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.52%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-537 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (44.9% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#93 in OR, #4,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Oakland SD 1 (rural): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 183 in OR (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakland Elementary School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #143 of 412 statewide, top 38%, 222 students, 65% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade D, #33 of 128 statewide, top 27%, 185 students, 49% FRL); Oakland High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #50 of 143 statewide, top 37%, 221 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.