17010 State Highway 175

Middletown, CA 95461

$199,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 528 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 581 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,238/yr
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 581 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#320 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $200k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 581 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.