105 Windfall Way

Eureka, MO 63025

$489,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-1,794/mo
• Annual: $-21,532/yr
• Cap rate: 1.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.70%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $137,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (64.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (60.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $173k (64.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#97 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Geggie Elem. (math 43% / reading 60%, grade C-, #268 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 654 students, 7% FRL); Eureka Sr. High (math 36% / reading 66%, grade D+, #109 of 521 statewide, top 21%, 1,712 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 15452% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.2% in Eureka — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.