3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
804 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 109 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,951/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$85
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$410
Net cashflow
$1,299/mo
Annual
$15,586/yr
Cap rate
60.90%
Cash-on-cash
195.04%
DSCR
9.68
1% rule
6.50%
Cash to close
$8,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Mechanicsburg Area SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #175 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F2N46H1CVXW46F
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29