7545 W Blair St

West Odessa, TX 79764

$230,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 720 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-722/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-722/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,026 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: G E 'Buddy' West El (math 20% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 680 students, 83% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 21% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 1,036 students, 66% FRL); Odessa H S (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,874 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.