6525 Little Creek Rd

Middlesex, NC 27597

$234,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $297/mo
• Annual: $3,564/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#551 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 342 students, 72% FRL); Southern Nash Middle (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 798 students, 69% FRL); Southern Nash High (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,070 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $235k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Middlesex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.