2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Townhouse
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,425/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$572
Tax + insurance
−$316
HOA
−$347
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$299
Net cashflow
$-109/mo
Annual
$-1,306/yr
Cap rate
5.09%
Cash-on-cash
-4.28%
DSCR
0.81
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$30,520
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $109k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (17.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $90k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $33k; list at $109k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-F3RQQF9JVH3RSW
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29