501 E Sixteenth St

Alamogordo, NM 88310

$169,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-369/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-369/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?