149 Arkansas St

Buffalo, NY 14213

$14,900D+

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,164 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 332 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax + insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$879
• Net cashflow: $3,203/mo
• Annual: $38,439/yr
• Cap rate: 264.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 921.36%
• DSCR: 42.00
• 1% rule: 28.08%
• Cash to close: $4,172

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($103 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 264.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,184/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.