2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
912 sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 115 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,093/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$37
Tax + insurance
−$13
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$230
Net cashflow
$814/mo
Annual
$9,767/yr
Cap rate
145.82%
Cash-on-cash
498.31%
DSCR
23.17
1% rule
15.62%
Cash to close
$1,960
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $7k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $7k).
It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($6k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $6k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $48 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $210 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#507 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
Tarrant City (suburban): math 4% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #121 of 129 in AL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 89% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 145.8% vs local median 11.0% in Tarrant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F44HST3AMDVPST
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29