307 Blue Ridge Dr S #4

Spruce Pine, NC 28752

$235,000C+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1998 · Townhouse · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$318
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $441/mo
• Annual: $5,286/yr
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#19 in NC, #1,753 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Mcdowell County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #115 of 178 in NC (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcdowell High School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C-, #279 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 1,416 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mcdowell County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 266 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 175 units permitted in McDowell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDowell County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.7% in Spruce Pine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.