11358 Zebina Rd

Louisville, GA 30434

$69,500B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,335/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $600/mo
• Annual: $7,204/yr
• Cap rate: 16.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.02%
• DSCR: 2.65
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $19,460

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#471 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (rural): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #166 of 174 in GA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (49%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $70k implies a 324% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.