424 Boxwood Dr

Venice Gardens, FL 34285

$292,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,606 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,981/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$177
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-437/mo
• Annual: $-5,241/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $81,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $292k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-437 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (32.2% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $198k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#537 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Elementary School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.