Gramercy Plan

Geismar, LA 70734

$477,500F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,872 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 382 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,758/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,560
• Tax + insurance: −$814
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-1,195/mo
• Annual: $-14,337/yr
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.49%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $136,676

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $478k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (42.2% below list).
• It's been on market 382 days — a 12% lower offer ($420k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (42.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spanish Lake Primary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #50 of 646 statewide, top 9%, 540 students, 41% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 382 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.