821 Patricia Ave #106

Dunedin, FL 34698

$98,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 758 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$648
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $99/mo
• Annual: $1,192/yr
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#15 in FL, #411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.8% in Dunedin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.