504 Hickory St

Greenville, AL 36037

$105,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,620/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#358 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Butler County (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #113 of 129 in AL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.