43 Mccarty Island Rd

Picayune, MS 39466

$39,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 772 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Pending · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$535
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $41/mo
• Annual: $492/yr
• Cap rate: 20.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.22%
• DSCR: 3.23
• 1% rule: 2.49%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($492/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Picayune School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 130 in MS (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 349 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.