2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
609 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,128/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,085
Tax + insurance
−$1,298
HOA
−$480
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$867
Net cashflow
$-2,602/mo
Annual
$-31,229/yr
Cap rate
2.28%
Cash-on-cash
-14.32%
DSCR
0.36
1% rule
0.53%
Cash to close
$218,137
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $599k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $402k (32.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (31.1% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $402k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 31d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($158k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F6PHP68QXARV2R
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29