3916 Casaba Loop

Bloomingdale, FL 33596

$335,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,696/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $15/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($15/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (19.5% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $270k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#383 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alafia Elementary School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 39% FRL); Burns Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #140 of 571 statewide, top 25%, 1,202 students, 48% FRL); Bloomingdale High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 2,304 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $335k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.