852 Sain Rd

Mocksville, NC 27028

$194,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1974 · Land · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $335/mo
• Annual: $4,023/yr
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $54,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (3.5% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#68 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Davie County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #57 of 178 in NC (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 250 units permitted in Davie County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davie County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $194k implies a 385% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in Mocksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.