10854 S Hemlock Rd

St. Charles, MI 48614

$150,000C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 5,550 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Pending · 293 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $246/mo
• Annual: $2,947/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles Community Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #196 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: St Charles Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #433 of 1,397 statewide, top 34%, 376 students, 58% FRL); St Charles Community Middlehigh School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 326 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $150k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.