2176 Beaver Valley Rd

Fairborn, OH 45324

$180,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $290/mo
• Annual: $3,483/yr
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#374 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Fairborn City (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #520 of 656 in OH (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fairborn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.