124 Cricket Way

Duncan, AZ 85534

$55,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,020 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 302 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $599/mo
• Annual: $7,183/yr
• Cap rate: 19.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.64%
• DSCR: 3.08
• 1% rule: 2.28%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $385 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $5 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#153 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Duncan Unified District (4228) (rural): math 30% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #108 of 249 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Duncan Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 263 students, 56% FRL); Duncan High School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #140 of 381 statewide, top 37%, 132 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Greenlee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greenlee County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.